Speculation Will Ruin Your Life — Stop Doing It!
You know how curiosity killed the cat? Well, speculation could kill you. Don’t take part in it and, as far as possible, limit others around you from taking part in it too. This article explains why speculation is so hazardous to our health and what we can do to avoid it.
Firstly, what is ‘speculation’? When I asked Google this question, the first explanation given was: ‘the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence’. It is upon this foundation that I have constructed my argument against speculating, which can lead to unnecessary fear and worry.
The Achilles Heel of Gradualism
With freedom of information going into overdrive and social media giving every man and his dog a viral platform on which to air their half-baked views, the rampant spread, coupled by sheer volume, of unfounded opinions has never been so rife. This wouldn’t be such an issue if we, as a race, were not devouring this misinformation so regularly and on such a large scale.
Human beings are influenced by gradualism. Tell someone something that seems unsound once and they won’t believe you. Tell that same person the same thing over and over, back it up with persuasive, logical arguments; scientific-looking pictures; endorsements from others who share your view, especially if they have letters after their names or are in positions of power, and over time, that person may come to agree with you. It becomes truth to them, even if there’s no truth in it. What do you think influences the mass suicides we hear about every now and again? How do you get an intelligent person to skew their views along extreme tangents? How has the face-mask become such an essential item during the current pandemic, despite there being no scientific evidence to suggest that it protects anyone from the virus?
Another part to all this is that people love to pass on attention-grabbing headlines. If you can feed your followers something sensational on social media, who cares whether it’s true or not? Social media is about letting the world know we exist — the modern-day ‘I woz ere’ stamp, once reserved for the doors of public toilets, now scribed on the virtual ether for millions to see. And, who can blame us? In a worldwide population of almost 8 billion, the revolutionary wheel, lightbulb and internet already invented, electricity, gravity and DNA already discovered, what’s left to make us stand out from the crowd? Growing up, our parents told us that we’re special, unique and individual, but the sad truth is that in this day and age, faced with such overwhelming competition from both the living and deceased, most of us are not special, unique and individual enough. We risk our voices getting lost amongst the sheer volume of other people shouting in the room. Social media is our microphone, our soap box, our stage on which to stand and speak our minds. There’s something in all of us that wants to announce our existence — otherwise, what’s the point in being?
Coronavirus Speculation (Fake News) — Don’t Believe Everything You Read
‘It is a sad truth that any health crisis will spawn its own pandemic of misinformation’, David Robson writing for BBC Future, April 2020.
The rumours around Coronavirus have included everything from it having escaped from a Chinese lab, to it being a form of social-cleansing created by the rich to eliminate the poor, to people being protected from it if they drink industrial-strength alcohol. Taken in isolation, all of these suggestions sound crazy, but give them time, repetition, backing by seemingly reputable sources and something akin to evidence, e.g. testimonials and / or pretty scientific-looking pictures, and they might start to stick. Another issue is when claims are misconstrued.
The other day, my dad shared with me a Dutch study, concluding that those with a vitamin K deficiency are more exposed to COVID-19. The study recommends spinach, eggs and hard and blue cheese to boost this vitamin. Guess what I won’t be able to get from the supermarket this week? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that there’s no truth to this study. My concern is that people will treat these standard food items as protection, rather than mitigation, assuming that if they incorporate them into their everyday diet, they will become immune to Coronavirus. If, however, they do go on to contract Corona, they will write the study off as untrue, when in fact it never claimed that spinach, eggs and certain types of cheese would guarantee to guard against the virus. Understandably, pandemics cause people to panic (take out the ‘dem’ and you even have the word ‘panic’: ‘pan — dem — ic’). In lieu of a confirmed, effective vaccine for Coronavirus, people would love nothing more than for common supermarket foods to be proven as the answer — anything to make us feel safe.
Economic Speculation
One of the arguments against Brexit — doesn’t all that seem like a lifetime ago now — was that it would plunge the UK economy into recession. Now, as a result of the pandemic’s impact, we’re facing a possible global recession.
This week, Hubby began his temporary furlough leave of 3 weeks. Despite my best efforts, the first thought that entered my mind when he warned me of this was: ‘he’s going to lose his job’. I then did what any self-respecting wife would do in the face of such a prospect — opened a bottle of wine and tried not to hit the panic button. However, my initial response was based on no solid evidence — I was speculating — when in fact, all available evidence is to the contrary. Hubby’s employer explained that they have chosen to furlough him and at this time because:
· he was one of the last into their company; therefore they feel that it would be unfair to the other employees to keep him on instead of them
· they don’t want to lose him. By putting him on furlough leave, his employee contract remains valid and he will still receive 80% of his salary. At this stage, they hope to be able to take him back after the 3 weeks
· they are going through a quiet period when it comes to orders, so currently don’t need all hands on deck
· the UK government will stop solely footing the bill for furloughed employees in August; companies will need to start contributing also — this could negatively impact those struggling in the current economic climate
My challenge is to discipline my thinking and block off all speculation about what the outcome of his temporary furlough leave could be. Instead, for peace of mind, I must choose to focus on the available evidence, which points to him being able to reclaim his job and 100% of his wage in 3 weeks-time, treat this period as an extended holiday for him and put together a to-do list of all the things which need doing in the house and garden, so that he doesn’t get bored and spend the entire time playing on his Xbox. A current Corona-work-from-homer myself, much as I embrace this manner of working, it does get lonely sometimes, and having another human presence in the house during the day will be nice, even if it is lying in bed until 3pm.
If anything changes in the future, and it does look as if Hubby will lose his job, we can cross that bridge then, hopefully employing ‘planic’, as opposed to panic.
Speculation on Other People’s Opinions
But speculation doesn’t stop at world-changing crises, such as pandemics and or the effects of global recessions. Ever been convinced that other people don’t like or respect you, and are talking or laughing about you behind your back? I have. Having experienced several life-changing events in 2018 and consequently, a minor breakdown in 2019, for months I was convinced that my boss and colleagues didn’t take me seriously and were just waiting for me to do something stupid and lose my job. Lockdown’s retreat and reflection gave me the space, time and clarity to see that in reality, I was projecting my own fears onto other people, convincing myself that this was how they perceived me, rather than the truth which was that this was how I perceived me.
Speculation and self-hate will see you constantly seeking approval from others, imagining that they think the worst of you, and will give you nothing but stress and insecurity, whilst draining and exhausting you. When you next get scared of other people’s supposed poor perceptions of you, ask yourself: is it them, or is it me?
Speculation’s Self-Fulfilling Prophesies
In your head, the important presentation next week has already happened and you’ve failed at it, never to recover. You forgot what you were supposed to be saying, embarrassed your boss and the company, lost the client and are probably now going to lose your job — you’re just waiting for your P45 to appear in your inbox. The reality? The presentation hasn’t happened yet, it’s up to you how you set yourself up for it and negative thinking is a harmful hindrance.
Instead of imagining all the things that could go wrong, take a deep breath and imagine yourself smashing it. You nail the presentation, your boss and company are so proud, the client is impressed, you’re offered a promotion, the crowd goes wild. Probably, the truth of the situation will lie somewhere in between the 2 scenarios, but better to prepare for the positive than dread the negative. Your thoughts influence your approach and behaviour and speculation can create self-fulfilling prophesies.
Spurn Speculation — Trust Me, You’ll be Happier For It
14 years ago, aged 25, I wanted to be taken more seriously by those around me. My answer was to get into current affairs, tuning into the news each day and looking for openings at work to air my considered political views. 6 months into this routine and I was afraid to leave my house. Ever noticed that almost all news reported is bad? Sadly, it seems to be solely bad news that sells, but it gives such a negative, one-sided view of the world, making us believe that nothing good ever happens.
Amid the explosion of social media, I’ve become an e-hermit. You won’t find me on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook, I have no desire to be ‘Tik-Tok-famous’ and possess a lower-than-average drive to author a comment that goes viral. When my email provider offered me regular Corona-related updates, I laughed and declined. Since Boris’s briefings became daily, rather than every few weeks, I’ve tuned out on the basis that too much news will kill me.
Currently, I live happily in my lockdown bubble, plug my ears and sing ‘la la la’ at the top of my lungs, figuratively-speaking, when those around me discuss speculative theories. When I feel that an update on Corona is long-overdue, I check the latest info from reputable sources, such as the Gov.UK website, BBC News and the World Health Organisation (WHO).
I’m an extreme case, but for what it’s worth, my tips for spurning speculation are below:
1. Limit the Lies and Bombardment
Speculative views will come at you from every direction, if you let them (and sometimes, even if you don’t): social media, newspapers, the internet, friends, family and colleagues — people are driven to influence others; it’s all part of us making our mark on the world and reminding those around us of our value. However, in our knowledge-based, modern society, the term ‘I think therefore I am’, spoken by René Descartes in 1637, should probably be updated to: ‘I speculate therefore I am’.
Daily, we are bombarded with information-overload at best, misinformation-overload at worst, so be careful what you read, listen to and let stick. Also, beware the vampire of volume. ‘If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.’ Who coined that truism? Hitler, and we all know how that turned out.
Ever enjoyed a heat-wave at Easter, then endured your colleagues talking for weeks afterwards about how “we’ve had our summer”? Ever accepted their views as truth, backed up by what they remember from previous years, disregarding the fact that memories fail, and felt gloomy until, inevitably, the sun came out again and proved them wrong? You could’ve saved yourself the worry about a cold summer by simply not allowing their opinions to stick in your head.
2. Check Claims Against Reliable Sources
Social media can’t be trusted. I’ll say it again — social media cannot be trusted. If you can’t bring yourself to become an e-hermit, like me, then at the very least, take everything you see on Twitter, Insta and Facebook with a generous helping of salt, or check the claims against reliable sources. I suggest doing the same with the info you receive from friends, family and colleagues. Look no further than the differing interpretations of the lockdown rules for evidence as to how individual people perceive things differently. Rather than relying on other people’s views, do your research and make up your own mind.
3. Override Your Intuition — Examine the Facts
Did you know that your gut feeling can lie to you? At any given moment, your intuition is based on a number of factors including: experience, how tired you are, what frame of mind you’re in, other people’s views and unconscious bias. Contrary to popular belief, it’s not always right.
Here’s an example. Since the age of 3, I’ve had an irrational fear of dogs. This stems from one of my earliest memories — a pack of lanky, energetic, dingo-esque types running towards me on a beach. They raced straight past me, but I couldn’t get the image of their speed, power and teeth out of my head. Now, whenever I see a dog, I have to try and quash my irrational fear. My intuition tells me never to go anywhere near one, when in reality, there are plenty of friendly dogs around.
Gut feelings are a form of instinct, but also of speculation. Your mind makes a quick assessment of the situation and gives you its best answer — anything from ‘the world actually is going to end’ to ‘I don’t like people called Kathleen’. What’s the answer? Don’t ignore it, but temper it with some logical facts, before deciding upon it as absolute truth.
